Page 40 - CMA Journal (Mar-Apr 2026)

5) Active Monetary and Fiscal Coordination: SBP should be · Hasnat, H. and Siddiqui, K. (2025). 'The role of geopoli cs in repeated foreign
exchange crisis in Pakistan', Resources Policy, 90, p. 104700.
alert in its approach to in ation expectations and avoiding h ps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar cle/abs/pii/S030142072500003X
de-anchoring of in ation expectations. The only solution to · Hussain, M. Z. (2026). 'Escala ng Middle East conflict threatens Pakistan's economy
amid key IMF talks', Trade Chronicle. h ps://tradechronicle.com/escala ng-middle-
safeguard society against the retrogressive consequences east-conflict-threatens-pakistans-economy/
of energy and food in ation is to have a tight monetary · INP. (2024). 'Experts iden fy frequent fiscal shocks as major driver behind infla on'.
h ps://inp.net.pk/experts-iden fy-frequent-fiscal-shocks-as-major-driver-behind-
policy coupled with scal responsibility and a targeted infla on/
· Lahore School of Economics Modeling Lab. (2025). 'Impact of External Shocks and
social safety net (i.e. through the Benazir Income Support Exchange Rate Movements on Retail and Wholesale Prices in Pakistan: A Granular
Programme). Level Analysis', Lahore School of Economics Journal.
h ps://journals.lahoreschool.edu.pk/impact-of-external-shocks-and-exchange-rate-
movements/
Conclusion · Lokmat Times. (2026). 'Oil supply disrup on from Iran-US war likely to be Pakistan's
'biggest economic threat': Report'. h ps://www.lokma mes.com/business/oil-
The US-Iran War (2026), in which a diplomatic cease re has supply-disrup on-from-iran-us-war-likely-to-be-pakistans-biggest-economic-threat-
report/
reduced the intensity of ghting, has unveiled the fault lines · Me s Global. (2026). 'PKR walks a ghtrope between stability and slow decline'.
which permeate Pakistan's economy. The shock has spread h ps://me sglobal.news/PKR-walks-a- ghtrope-between-stability-and-slow-decline-
58399
swiftly in energy prices, the exchange rate, and the external · News of Bahrain. (2026). 'IMF approves $6 billion loan for Pakistan'.
h ps://www.newso ahrain.com/business/55145.html
account and undone months of hard-achieved disin ation · Pakbanker. (2025). 'Pakistani Rupee Dips to Near 281 Against US Dollar Following Fitch
and put the rupee on a process of managed depreciation. Ra ngs Forecast'. h ps://pakbanker.com/pakistani-rupee-dips-to-near-281-against-us-
dollar-following-fitch-ra ngs-forecast/
This con ict con rms an emerging empirical literature that · Pasha, H. A. (2026). 'Pakistan's Economic Stabiliza on Efforts Face Their Biggest
identi es the asymmetric and overstated effect of Challenge With Iran War', The Diplomat. h ps://thediplomat.com/2026/04/pakistans-
economic-stabiliza on-efforts-face-their-biggest-challenge-with-iran-war/
geopolitical shocks on another economy, which relies on · Profit. (2026). 'Pakistan infla on rises 7.3% in March as wheat, fuel, electricity drive
imports, particularly in the case of emerging economies. prices'. h ps://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2026/04/02/pakistan-infla on-rises-7-3-in-
march-as-wheat-fuel-electricity-drive-prices/
· Qadir, A. (2026). 'Hormuz Blockade: The Cost to Pakistan's Economy', Daily Times.
In the case of Pakistan, the way of the future requires a h ps://daily mes.com.pk/1473156/hormuz-blockade-the-cost-to-pakistans-economy/
complete reassessment of its economic policy. Periodic IMF · Sardar, N. and Hyder, Z. (2022). 'Does the source of the oil price shock ma er for infla on
in Pakistan: Implica ons for monetary policy', SBP Working Paper Series, No. 110.
bailouts and the vagaries of international commodity h ps://www.sbp.org.pk/publica ons/wpapers/2022/wp110.pdf
markets are not the basis of long-term growth. The country · SBP (State Bank of Pakistan). (2024). 'Is Infla on in Pakistan Linked to Exchange Rate
Deprecia on? SBP Explains'. h ps://www.sbp.org.pk/press/2024/Pr-15-May-2024.pdf
needs to embrace the analytical and strategic skills of its · SBP (State Bank of Pakistan). (2026). 'Current Account records over $ 1.1 billion deficit
nancial sector personnel, especially CMAs, in order to during 1st half of FY26'. h ps://www.app.com.pk/business/current-account-records-
over-1-1-billion-deficit-during-1st-half-of-fy26/
develop a more robust and shock-resilient economic · Springer. (2023). 'Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Asian Countries', in Emerging
framework. This does not just involve dealing with short Markets Finance and Trade. h ps://www.springerprofessional.de/exchange-rate-pass-
through-in-south-asian-countries/24115278
term currency and in ation risks, but also includes the more · Trade Chronicle. (2026). 'Escala ng Middle East conflict threatens Pakistan's economy
amid key IMF talks: Mian Zahid Hussain'. h ps://tradechronicle.com/escala ng-middle-
fundamental structural changes required to turn Pakistan east-conflict-threatens-pakistans-economy/
into a shock-absorbing rather than shock-amplifying · Tresmark. (2025). 'Pakistan's Monetary Recovery'. h ps://tresmark.com/pakistans-
monetary-recovery/
economy. The 2026 shock is a wakeup call; how Pakistan · World Bank. (2025). 'South Asia Remi ances & World Bank News Monitoring'.
responds will determine whether it can nally overcome its
history of frequent external crises.
About the Author: Muhammad Musab Mirza is a Lahore-based
References finance and security professional holding the ACMA designation from
the Institute of Cost Accountants of India, with licensed credentials as a
· Ahmed, S., et al. (2023). 'Geopoli cal Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctua ons in Emerging
Markets', Journal of Interna onal Money and Finance, 135, p. 102845. Public Accountant and Lead Auditor in Australia. He is a PhD-DBA
h ps://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/journal-of-interna onal-money-and-finance Scholar in Corporate Finance at INTI University, Malaysia. His
· Caldara, D. and Iacoviello, M. (2022). 'Measuring Geopoli cal Risk', American professional experience includes internal audit, traineeships at KPMG
Economic Review, 112(4), pp. 1194-1225.
h ps://www.aeaweb.org/ar cles?id=10.1257/aer.20191823 and KAPCO, consulting at ABN AMRO, and advisory roles in the Royal
· CASS Lahore. (2025). 'Gulf labour reforms and Pakistan's remi ance risk'. Australian Navy and Queensland Government Merchant Navy. He also
h ps://casslhr.com/gulf-labour-reforms-and-pakistans-remi ance-risk/
· Dawn. (2026). 'War in Middle East fails to dent remi ances in March'. holds a Level 7 Professional Qualification in Maritime and Security
h ps://www.dawn.com/news/1990055/war-in-middle-east-fails-to-dent-remi ances- Operations from the University of Adelaide.
in-march
38 ICMA’s Chartered Management Accountant, Mar-Apr 2026