Page 64 - CMA Journal (Mar-Apr 2026)

Brent Crude Price
Date
Price of Palm Oil
WTI Crude Prices
1/1/2025
1030
75.6
78.2
2/1/2025
1067
71.5
75.2
68.2
71.7
3/1/2025
1057
66.9
981.2
63.6
4/1/2025
5/1/2025
902.8
62.2
64.1
6/1/2025
934.5
68.5
69.8
7/1/2025
931
69.6
68.4
1026
64.9
67.2
8/1/2025 Table 1: Global Price of Brent Crude in USD per Barrel (Monthly)
9/1/2025 67.6 64.0 1035
10/1/2025 64.0 60.9 1038
11/1/2025 63.7 60.0 977.1
12/1/2025 61.8 58.0 981.2
1/1/2026 64.6 59.9 1004
F O CU S A R T ICL E 1034
2/1/2026
64.4
69.4
3/1/2026 99.4 91.4 1121
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Lousi & Macrotrends
Palm oil prices increased from 1,004 USD in January 2026 to increases in the series. This abrupt escalation coincided with global commodity dynamics, reinforcing in ationary Asian LNG Price Responses (2025–2026): A Pakistan -
1,121 USD by March, indicating the transmission of energy major geopolitical disruptions that constrained global oil pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying reliance on
Similarly, the Geopolitical Risk Index demonstrated Comparative Case Study
Figure 1: Global Prices of Brent Crude, WTI & Palm Oil-Monthly repeated spikes throughout 2025, rising from 113.23 in market volatility into agricultural and food commodities. supply, including signi cant interruptions in key export the broader environment of structural global economic March 2026
(USD per Barrel) Given palm oil’s dual role as a food input and biofuel routes and production hubs and production networks. uncertainty. Japan - Japan, one of the world’s largest LNG importers
January to 173.91 in March, surging dramatically to 222.38 faced acute supply security risks due to geopolitical tempor
120.0 1200.0 in June, and remaining structurally elevated throughout the feedstock, its pricing increasingly re ected developments A similar structural transition is observed in the Metal Price Insights about Asia LNG Price Trends disruptions in maritime corridors such as the Strait of coun
100.0 1000.0 year. These movements highlight the intensi cation of in energy markets, reinforcing cross commodity spillovers. Index, which showed a steady upward trajectory Hormuz. In response, it strengthened strategic LNG short-ter
80.0 800.0 geopolitical tensions, military con icts, sanctions risks, and The divergence between Brent and WTI highlights growing throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in (2025–2026) stockpiles, expanded long term procurement contracts, and co
60.0 600.0 segmentation in global energy markets. Brent recorded December, driven by sustained industrial demand and The observed dynamics in Asia LNG prices during improved coordination among utilities for cargo swapping
40.0 400.0 strategic competition, particularly in energy-producing 2025–2026 can be directly explained through a and emergency reallocation, maintaining stability in power B
spot marke
20.0 200.0 regions and critical maritime corridors. stronger gains due to higher exposure to maritime risk, Gulf tightening supply conditions. In 2026, the index remained generation despite global price shocks. spike trigg
0.0 0.0 supply disruptions, and transport related risk premiums, price stabilization in 2025 was abruptly replaced by a elevated, increasing further to 224.18 in January, peaking at combination of structural oversupply conditions and rationing,
Figure 4: Geopolitical Risk Index from 2025-2026 (Monthly) while WTI remained comparatively supported by US 222.85 in March after sustained high levels in February abrupt geopolitical disruptions in global energy markets. South Korea - South Korea adopted a resilience-oriented
domestic production and storage capacity. This divergence broad-based shock in early 2026, driven primarily by (220). Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a The global LNG market entered 2026 with a signi cant approach based on diversi ed supplier contracts, state maint
contract-ba
escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in energy
coordinated procurement, and higher storage utilization. It
297.27 underscores the increasing importance of geography, producing regions and strategic maritime corridors such as sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau, re ecting supply expansion, as approximately 93–150 mtpa of new also accelerated investment in nuclear and renewable
Global Price of Brent Crude Global WTI Crude Prices Global Price of Palm Oil logistics, and geopolitical exposure in price formation. ongoing pressures from industrial restructuring, supply liquefaction capacity came online across major exporting Sri Lanka -
173.91 222.38 138.56 154.51 131.39 121.62 the Strait of Hormuz. chain constraints, and increased demand from technology regions, including the United States, Qatar, Australia, and energy to reduce structural dependence on LNG imports. reduce
However, despite this apparent stabiliza�on in commodity prices, major global uncertainty indicators 113.23 125.87 167.80 Overall, the simultaneous increase in commodity prices In line with the World Bank Group’s Commodity Markets intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and Nigeria. China - China, despite being the largest LNG importer, hydro
However, despite this apparent stabilization in commodity
pointed to deepening systemic vulnerabili�es. The Oil Price Uncertainty Index rose sharply from 40.8 in 136.97 140.97 134.02 104.34 alongside elevated levels of the Oil Price Uncertainty Index, Outlook, the global economy entered 2026 under severe renewable energy infrastructure. remained relatively resilient due to its diversi ed energy g
prices, major global uncertainty indicators pointed to
January 2025 to 90.2 in March, then surged to 186.7 in June, and reached 208 by December, indica�ng 165.66 World Policy Uncertainty Index, and Geopolitical Risk Index commodity stress, with energy prices projected to rise by This expansion, representing roughly 10 percent growth in mix, including coal, domestic gas, and pipeline imports. In
deepening systemic vulnerabilities. The Oil Price
persistent instability in market expecta�ons despite temporary price modera�on. indicates a more unstable and interconnected global risk These developments are strongly reinforced by global price global LNG supply, shifted the market fundamentally from a 2025 it opportunistically increased spot LNG purchases
Uncertainty Index rose sharply from 40.8 in January 2025 to environment. Commodity pricing is increasingly in uenced around 24%, reaching their highest level since 2022, while dynamics in energy and agriculture linked commodities. seller dominated structure to a buyer driven regime, where during price declines, while in 2026 it emphasized contract
90.2 in March, then surged to 186.7 in June, and reached not only by traditional supply and demand factors but also overall commodity prices are expected to increase by 16%, The World Bank highlights that energy markets have prices were expected to soften due to excess availability. At diversi cation, storage expansion, and demand side energy se
208 by December, indicating persistent instability in by geopolitical developments, strategic chokepoints, policy driven by energy, fertilizer, and metal markets. This re ects a experienced one of the largest supply shocks on record due the same time, global LNG demand growth, estimated at exibility through industrial load adjustments. divergence
hedging, st
Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty
market expectations despite temporary price moderation. Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty fragmentation, and nancial uncertainty. This re ects a systemic transmission of geopolitical shocks into global to geopolitical disruptions, with crude oil supply reductions around 8.5 percent in 2026, remained concentrated in India - India faced rising import costs and responded by dev
Together, the simultaneous elevation of OPU, WPUI, and
Together, the simultaneous eleva�on of OPU, WPUI, and GPR throughout 2025 indicates that while structural shift toward a more volatile and unpredictable pricing systems rather than isolated market movements. reaching up to 10 million barrels per day at peak stress emerging Asian economies but was insu cient to fully diversifying LNG sourcing toward the United States, Qatar, f
GPR throughout 2025 indicates that while commodity
Figure 2: Oil Price Uncertainty Index from 2025-2026 (Monthly) commodity prices appeared to stabilize temporarily, the structural underpinnings of global markets global economic setting. The Global Energy Price Index illustrates this transition levels. Brent crude prices, which had averaged around USD absorb the supply surge, while Europe’s imports stabilized and Australia. At the same time, it accelerated renewable hi
prices appeared to stabilize temporarily, the structural
were increasingly destabilized by uncertainty, policy fragmenta�on, and geopoli�cal stress. clearly. After declining from 188.6 in January 2025 to 154.2 69 per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD and China’s recovery remained gradual and uneven. These energy expansion and maintained coal-based backup inequaliti
generation to reduce exposure to price volatility.
underpinnings of global markets were increasingly of
773.5 This fragility became more visible in early 2026, when the global economy entered a period Global Commodity Shock & Energy-Metal in May 2025, and further easing to 147.4 by December 2025, 86 per barrel in 2026, with temporary spikes signi cantly conditions explain the relatively range bound and declining the region.
destabilized by uncertainty, policy fragmentation, and
heightened vola�lity in commodity markets driven by geopoli�cal shocks. Brent crude surged from 64.6 Stress (2025–2026) energy markets initially re ected post crisis stabilization, higher during acute disruption phases. price pattern observed through most of 2025 and early
Figure 2: Oil Price Uncertainty Index from 2025-2026 (Monthly) USD in January 2026 to 99.4 USD by March, while WTI increased from 59.9 to 91.4 USD over the same moderating demand, and relatively balanced supply 2026.
geopolitical stress.
period. Simultaneously, the Oil Price Uncertainty Index rose sharply from 142.2 in January 2026 to 773.5 Global commodity markets during 2025–2026 re ect a clear conditions. However, this trend reversed sharply in 2026, The spillover e ects extend beyond energy into fertilizers, However, this structurally bearish outlook was disrupted by
This fragility became more visible in early 2026, when the
transition from cyclical normalization to geopolitically
77.9 186.7 208.0 773.5 in March, the highest level in the observed series, reflec�ng extreme instability in energy market with the index surging from 153.7 in January to 242.3 in food security, and industrial inputs. Fertilizer prices are
global economy entered a period of heightened volatility in
90.2 80.9 133.2 67.4 107.2 expecta�ons. driven structural instability. This shift is evident across March 2026, marking one of the steepest quarterly projected to rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and acute geopolitical tensions a ecting key maritime energy
54.3 commodity markets driven by geopolitical shocks. Brent energy, metals, and related input markets, where initial precious metals are reaching historic highs, re ecting both routes, particularly chokepoints such as the Strait of
40.8 142.2 98.7
crude surged from 64.6 USD in January 2026 to 99.4 USD by
65.2 35.7 The World Policy Uncertainty Index, although lower than its 2025 peak, remained significantly elevated industrial demand and heightened demand for safe haven Hormuz, which handles a signi cant share of global LNG
March, while WTI increased from 59.9 to 91.4 USD over the
at 39,788.0 in January 2026 and increased further to 49,754.0 by March, indica�ng sustained policy assets. These price movements are further ampli ed by trade. These disruptions introduced shipping risk
77.9 186.7 208.0 instability amid rising geopoli�cal tensions.
same period. Simultaneously, the Oil Price Uncertainty
90.2 133.2 67.4 107.2 strong transmission e ects across commodity classes, premiums, cargo diversions, and short-term supply
54.3 80.9 Index rose sharply from 142.2 in January 2026 to 773.5 in where oil price shocks propagate into natural gas and bottlenecks, while LNG’s inherently low short run supply
40.8 142.2 98.7 Similarly, the Geopoli�cal Risk Index rose from 167.80 in January 2026 to 297.27 by March, marking
Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty 35.7 March, the highest level in the observed series, re ecting fertilizer markets, intensifying in ationary pressures elasticity ampli ed the impact of these shocks. As a result,
Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty 65.2
extreme instability in energy market expectations.
The World Policy Uncertainty Index (GDP-weighted average) also showed sustained escala�on, rising one of the most pronounced increases in the dataset. This increase reflects intensifying geopoli�cal globally. despite underlying oversupply conditions, the Asia LNG
The World Policy Uncertainty Index (GDP-weighted
conflict, disrup�ons in key mari�me supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and growing concerns
from 25,719.7 in January 2025 to 77,304.6 by September before remaining elevated at 56,140.2 in market experienced a sharp nonlinear price spike in March
average) also showed sustained escalation, rising from
December. This persistent rise reflected increasing uncertainty in global economic governance, trade over prolonged regional instability, all of which increasingly influenced market behavior. The structural nature of this volatility is further evident in 2026, rising by 93.58 percent in a single month. This
The World Policy Uncertainty Index, although lower than its
25,719.7 in January 2025 to 77,304.6 by September before
2025 peak, remained signi cantly elevated at 39,788.0 in
regula�ons, monetary policy coordina�on, and macroeconomic management.
Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty The combined rise in oil price uncertainty, policy uncertainty, and geopoli�cal risk suggests that the the interaction between energy and metal markets. While
remaining elevated at 56,140.2 in December. This persistent January 2026 and increased further to 49,754.0 by March, indicates that while structural oversupply was exerting
The World Policy Uncertainty Index (GDP-weighted average) also showed sustained escala�on, rising 2026 commodity shock extended beyond physical supply constraints and was also shaped by broader 2025 re ected divergence—energy prices declining while downward pressure on prices, the market had become
rise re ected increasing uncertainty in global economic
indicating sustained policy instability amid rising
Figure 3: World Policy Uncertainty Index- GDP weighted average (Monthly)
from 25,719.7 in January 2025 to 77,304.6 by September before remaining elevated at 56,140.2 in systemic uncertainty linked to geopoli�cal fragmenta�on and policy unpredictability. metal prices steadily increased—2026 marks a highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, which temporarily
regulations,
policy
trade
governance,
monetary
December. This persistent rise reflected increasing uncertainty in global economic governance, trade geopolitical tensions. synchronized escalation phase, where both indices remain overrode fundamentals and triggered extreme volatility
coordination, and macroeconomic management.
regula�ons, monetary policy coordina�on, and macroeconomic management. Palm oil prices increased from 1004 USD in January 2026 to 1121 USD by March, indica�ng the elevated under the in uence of geopolitical fragmentation
77,304.6
Similarly, the Geopolitical Risk Index rose from 167.80 in
72,312.5 transmission of energy market vola�lity into agricultural and food commodi�es. Given palm oil’s dual and supply chain disruptions. This convergence highlights a through panic buying, reallocation of cargoes to higher
January 2026 to 297.27 by March, marking one of the most
60,964.3
Figure 3: World Policy Uncertainty Index- GDP weighted average (Mont 49,754.0 role as a food input and biofuel feedstock, its pricing increasingly reflected developments in energy critical structural shift: commodity markets are no longer paying markets, and supply chain disruptions.
56,140.2hly)
48,663.6
58,896.6
51,095.6
pronounced increases in the dataset. This increase re ects
32,200.5 41,014.1 39,788.0 44,107.9 markets, reinforcing cross commodity spillovers. independently driven by supply and demand fundamentals
35,410.1 41,511.7 intensifying geopolitical con ict, disruptions in key
maritime supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and ts.
25,719.7 77,304.6 The divergence between Brent and WTI highlights growing segmenta�on in global energy marke but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopolitical
72,312.5 and nancial risk factors.
growing concerns over prolonged regional instability, all of
60,964.3 56,140.2 Brent recorded stronger gains due to higher exposure to mari�me risk, Gulf supply disrup�ons, and
49,754.0
48,663.6
58,896.6
51,095.6
which increasingly in uenced market behavior.
Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 transport related risk premiums, while WTI remained compara�vely supported by US domes�c
41,014.1
32,200.5 Overall, the evidence con rms that global energy and metal
35,410.1 41,511.7 39,788.0 44,107.9 produc�on and storage capacity. This divergence underscores the increasing importance of geography, markets have entered a high volatility regime characterized
The combined rise in oil price uncertainty, policy
25,719.7 Source: World Uncertainty Index logis�cs, and geopoli�cal exposure in price forma�on. by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and
uncertainty, and geopolitical risk suggests that the 2026
Similarly, the Geopoli�cal Risk Index demonstrated repeated spikes throughout 2025, rising from commodity shock extended beyond physical supply reduced predictability. The transition from stabilization in
Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26
113.23 in January to 173.91 in March, surging drama�cally to 222.38 in June, and remaining structurally constraints and was also shaped by broader systemic 2025 to synchronized escalation in 2026 underscores that
elevated throughout the year. These movements highlight the intensifica�on of geopoli�cal tensions, uncertainty linked to geopolitical fragmentation and policy geopolitical risk has become the dominant force shaping Source: Macrotrends
military conflicts, sanc�ons risks, and strategic compe��on, par�cularly in energy-producing regions
Source: World Uncertainty Index
Source: World Uncertainty Index
and cri�cal mari�me corridors. unpredictability.
Similarly, the Geopoli�cal Risk Index demonstrated repeated spikes throughout 2025, rising from
113.23 in January to 173.91 in March, surging drama�cally to 222.38 in June, and remaining structurally
elevated throughout the year. These movements highlight the intensifica�on of geopoli�cal tensions,
military conflicts, sanc�ons risks, and strategic compe��on, par�cularly in energy-producing regions
and cri�cal mari�me corridors. ICMA’s Chartered Management Accountant, Mar-Apr 2026 62