Page 67 - CMA Journal (Jan-Feb 2026)

ECONOMY
O THER F EATURES

WATCH

By: ICMA Research and Publica ons Department

Global Risk: Rising Uncertainty and Oil Volatility

In 2026, global markets are shaken not just by growth
Table 1: Global Uncertainty and Oil Price Trends
forecasts or interest rates but by uncertainty itself. The
Date World Uncertainty Index Oil Price
World Uncertainty Index (WUI) and the Oil Price
(GDP weighted average) Uncertainty
Uncertainty Index capture this turbulence. Recent events,
Index
including the US, Israel, and Iran conflict, highlight just
May-25 77,997.7 77.915915
how vulnerable developing economies are in a world of
Jun-25 84,305.3 186.6506019
constant and unpredictable shocks.
Jul-25 95,509.3 133.1628717
The World Uncertainty Index (WUI) measures global Aug-25 105,558.3 65.1688816
uncertainty by tracking how often analysts use the term Sep-25 122,422.5 67.35500757
“uncertainty” in official country reports. Unlike sentiment Oct-25 110,331.9 107.2278694
surveys or financial market fluctuations, the WUI captures Nov-25 91,874.6 35.68786051
deeper structural ambiguity including geopolitical risk, Dec-25 90,758.1 208.0475278
policy unpredictability, trade friction, supply chain Jan-26 79,904.3 142.1736596
disruptions, and energy market anxiety across a GDP Feb-26 83,844.9 98.71804926
weighted sample of 71 economies. Its sharp rise signals a Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty Database
world where uncertainty is not a temporary event but a
lasting structural reality of the global economy.

Volatility Trends uncertainty. The WUI peak in September 2025 coincided
with renewed tensions in the Middle East and rising trade
Recent figures for global and oil price uncertainty from disputes. Oil price volatility reached its highest level in
May 2025 to February 2026 show large and uneven December 2025 amid threats to key energy transit routes
swings as depicted in Table-1.
that carry nearly one fifth of the world’s oil supply.
These high peaks and deep declines are not random.
They reflect growing geopolitical tensions and policy

Figure 1: Global Uncertainty and Oil Price Uncertainty Trends

(From May-25 to Feb-25)

140,000.0 250
120,000.0
200
100,000.0
80,000.0 150
60,000.0
100
40,000.0
50
20,000.0
0.0 0
2
May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-2 2 5 O c t - 2 5 Nov-25 Dec-225 Jan-26 Feb-26
a
World Uncertainty Idex (GDP weighted average) Oil Price UUncertainty Indexx
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ICMA’s Chartered Management Accountant, Jan-Feb 2026