Page 65 - CMA Journal (Mar-Apr 2026)

P. 65

Figure 5: Global Energy Price Index & Metal Price Ind
Figure 5: Global Energy Price Index & Metal Price Index (Monthly)ex (Monthly)
Metal Price Index
Energy Price Index
Metal Price Index
Energy Price Index
300.0
300.0
250.0
250.0
200.0
200.0
150.0
150.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
0.0
0.0

A similar structural transi�on is observed in the Metal Price Index, which showed a steady upward a steady upward
A similar structural transi�on is observed in the Metal Price Index, which showed
trajectory throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in December, driven by sustained
trajectory throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in December, driven by sustained
industrial demand and �ghtening supply condi�ons. In 2026, the index remained elevated, increasing
industrial demand and �ghtening supply condi�ons. In 2026, the index remained elevated, increasing
further to 224.18 in January, peaking at 222.85 in March a�er sustained high levels
further to 224.18 in January, peaking at 222.85 in March a�er sustained high levels in February (220). in February (220).
Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau,
Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau,
reﬂec�ng ongoing pressures from industrial restructuring, supply chain constrain
reﬂec�ng ongoing pressures from industrial restructuring, supply chain constraints, and increased ts, and increased
demand from technology intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and
demand from technology intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and renewable energy renewable energy
F O CU S A R T ICL E infrastructure.
infrastructure.
These developments are strongly reinforced by global price dynamics in energy and agriculture linked agriculture linked
These developments are strongly reinforced by global price dynamics in energy and
commodi�es. The World Bank highlights that energy markets have experienced one of the largest one of the largest
commodi�es. The World Bank highlights that energy markets have experienced
Figure 5: Global Energy Price Index & Metal Price Index (Monthly)ex (Monthly)
Figure 5: Global Energy Price Index & Metal Price Index (Monthly)
Figure 5: Global Energy Price Index & Metal Price Index (Monthly)
Figure 5: Global Energy Price Index & Metal Price Ind
supply shocks on record due to geopoli�cal disrup�ons, with crude oil supply reduc�ons reaching up to
Palm oil prices increased from 1,004 USD in January 2026 to supply shocks on record due to geopoli�cal disrup�ons, with crude oil supply reduc�ons reaching up to increases in the series. This abrupt escalation coincided with global commodity dynamics, reinforcing in ationary Asian LNG Price Responses (2025–2026): A Pakistan - Pakistan experienced severe stress due to heavy
Figure 5: Global Energy Price Index & Metal Price Index (Monthly)ex (Monthly)
Figure 5: Global Energy Price Index & Metal Price Ind
Energy Price Index
Metal Price Index
Energy Price Index
Energy Price Index Metal Price Index
Metal Price Index
Energy Price Index
Metal Price Index
300.0
300.0
300.0
1,121 USD by March, indicating the transmission of energy 10 million barrels per day at peak stress levels. Brent crude prices, which had averaged around USD 69 ed around USD 69 major geopolitical disruptions that constrained global oil pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying reliance on spot LNG markets and limited scal space. The
300.0
10 million barrels per day at peak stress levels. Brent crude prices, which had averag
Energy Price Index
Metal Price Index
Metal Price Index
Energy Price Index
250.0
300.0
250.0
300.0
Similarly, the Geopolitical Risk Index demonstrated market volatility into agricultural and food commodities. per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD 86 per barrel in 2026, with temporary spikes temporary spikes supply, including signi cant interruptions in key export the broader environment of structural global economic Comparative Case Study March 2026 price spike strained import capacity, leading to
250.0
250.0
per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD 86 per barrel in 2026, with
200.0
200.0
250.0
250.0
repeated spikes throughout 2025, rising from 113.23 in Given palm oil’s dual role as a food input and biofuel signiﬁcantly higher during acute disrup�on phases. routes and production hubs and production networks. uncertainty. Japan - Japan, one of the world’s largest LNG importers, emergency LNG tenders, industrial gas rationing, and
200.0
200.0
signiﬁcantly higher during acute disrup�on phases.
150.0
150.0
200.0
200.0
100.0
100.0
January to 173.91 in March, surging dramatically to 222.38 150.0 150.0 faced acute supply security risks due to geopolitical temporary fuel switching to furnace oil and coal. The
150.0
150.0
100.0
100.0
The spillover eﬀects extend beyond energy into fer�lizers, food security, and industrial inputs. Fer�lizer
50.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
in June, and remaining structurally elevated throughout the feedstock, its pricing increasingly re ected developments The spillover eﬀects extend beyond energy into fer�lizers, food security, and industrial inputs. Fer�lizer A similar structural transition is observed in the Metal Price Insights about Asia LNG Price Trends disruptions in maritime corridors such as the Strait of country also expanded solar and net metering capacity as a
0.0
0.0
50.0
50.0
in energy markets, reinforcing cross commodity spillovers. prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and precious metals are reaching historic
50.0o rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and precious metals are reaching historic
50.0 projected t
year. These movements highlight the intensi cation of prices are highs, reﬂec�ng both industrial demand and heightened demand for safe haven assets. These price assets. These price Index, which showed a steady upward trajectory (2025–2026) Hormuz. In response, it strengthened strategic LNG short-term hedge while seeking longer term contracts and
0.0
0.0
0.0
highs, reﬂec�ng both industrial demand and heightened demand for safe haven
0.0
geopolitical tensions, military con icts, sanctions risks, and The divergence between Brent and WTI highlights growing movements are further ampliﬁed by strong transmission eﬀects across commodity classes, where oil throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in stockpiles, expanded long term procurement contracts, and concessional nancing.
movements are further ampliﬁed by strong transmission eﬀects across commodity classes, where oil
segmentation in global energy markets. Brent recorded
strategic competition, particularly in energy-producing Overall, the simultaneous increase in commodity prices alongside elevated levels of the Oil Price December, driven by sustained industrial demand and The observed dynamics in Asia LNG prices during improved coordination among utilities for cargo swapping Bangladesh - Bangladesh faced similar pressure due to
price shocks propagate into natural gas and fer�lizer markets, intensifying inﬂa�onary pressures �onary pressures
price shocks propagate into natural gas and fer�lizer markets, intensifying inﬂa
stronger gains due to higher exposure to maritime risk, Gulf globally.
regions and critical maritime corridors. Uncertainty Index, World Policy Uncertainty Index, and Geopoli�cal Risk Index indicates a more tightening supply conditions. In 2026, the index remained 2025–2026 can be directly explained through a and emergency reallocation, maintaining stability in power spot market dependence and scal constraints. The price
globally.

generation despite global price shocks.
supply disruptions, and transport related risk premiums, The structural nature of this vola�lity is further evident in the interac�on between energy and me elevated, increasing further to 224.18 in January, peaking at combination of structural oversupply conditions and spike triggered emergency procurement, industrial
unstable and interconnected global risk environment. Commodity pricing is increasingly inﬂuenced not
A similar structural transi�on is observed in the Metal Price Index, which showed
A similar structural transi�on is observed in the Metal Price Index, which showed a steady upward a steady upward
rationing, and greater reliance on alternative fuels to
price stabilization in 2025 was abruptly replaced by a tal energy and metal
The structural nature of this vola�lity is further evident in the interac�on between
markets. While 2025 reﬂected divergence—energy prices declining while strategic
while WTI remained comparatively supported by US trajectory throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in December, driven by sustained
only by tradi�onal supply and demand factors but also by geopoli�cal developments, 222.85 in March after sustained high levels in February abrupt geopolitical disruptions in global energy markets. South Korea - South Korea adopted a resilience-oriented maintain power stability, alongside a gradual shift toward
trajectory throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in December, driven by sustained
broad-based shock in early 2026, driven primarily by metal prices steadily
markets. While 2025 reﬂected divergence—energy prices declining while metal prices steadily
A similar structural transi�on is observed in the Metal Price Index, which showed a steady upward
A similar structural transi�on is observed in the Metal Price Index, which showeda
A similar structural transi�on is observed in the Metal Price Index, which showed a steady upward steady upward
A similar structural transi�on is observed in the Metal Price Index, which showed
domestic production and storage capacity. This divergence industrial demand and �ghtening supply condi�ons. In 2026, the index remained elevated, increasing a steady upward (220). Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a The global LNG market entered 2026 with a signi cant approach based on diversi ed supplier contracts, state contract-based LNG sourcing.
industrial demand and �ghtening supply condi�ons. In 2026, the index remained elevated, increasing
increased—2026 marks a synchronized escala�on phase, where both indices remain elevated under in elevated under
increased—2026 marks a synchronized escala�on phase, where both indices rema
escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in energy
chokepoints, policy fragmenta�on, and ﬁnancial uncertainty. This reﬂects a structural shi� toward
underscores the increasing importance of geography, trajectory throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in December, driven by sustained a sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau, re ecting supply expansion, as approximately 93–150 mtpa of new coordinated procurement, and higher storage utilization. It
trajectory throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in December, driven by sustained
further to 224.18 in January, peaking at 222.85 in March a�er sustained high levels in February (220). in February (220).
trajectory throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in December, driven by sustained
further to 224.18 in January, peaking at 222.85 in March a�er sustained high levels
trajectory throughout 2025, rising from 181.19 in January to 210.77 in December, driven by sustained
the inﬂuence of geopoli�cal fragmenta�on and supply chain disrup�ons. This convergence highlights a gence highlights a
the inﬂuence of geopoli�cal fragmenta�on and supply chain disrup�ons. This conver
producing regions and strategic maritime corridors such as
Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau,
Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau,
industrial demand and �ghtening supply condi�ons. In 2026, the index remained elevated, increasing
more vola�le and unpredictable global economic se�ng. ongoing pressures from industrial restructuring, supply liquefaction capacity came online across major exporting also accelerated investment in nuclear and renewable Sri Lanka - Sri Lanka, constrained by external imbalances,
industrial demand and �ghtening supply condi�ons. In 2026, the index remained elevated, increasing
industrial demand and �ghtening supply condi�ons. In 2026, the index remained elevated, increasing
industrial demand and �ghtening supply condi�ons. In 2026, the index remained elevated, increasing
logistics, and geopolitical exposure in price formation.
cri�cal structural shi�: commodity markets are no longer independently driven by supply and demand
cri�cal structural shi�: commodity markets are no longer independently driven by supply and demand
energy to reduce structural dependence on LNG imports.
the Strait of Hormuz.industrial restructuring, supply chain constraints, and increased ts, and increased
reﬂec�ng ongoing pressures from
reduced LNG exposure by prioritizing fuel oil and
reﬂec�ng ongoing pressures from industrial restructuring, supply chain constrain
further to 224.18 in January, peaking at 222.85 in March a�er sustained high levels in February (220). in February (220).
further to 224.18 in January, peaking at 222.85 in March a�er sustained high levels
further to 224.18 in January, peaking at 222.85 in March a�er sustained high levels in February (220). in February (220).
further to 224.18 in January, peaking at 222.85 in March a�er sustained high levels
fundamentals but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopoli�cal and ﬁnancial risk factors.
fundamentals but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopoli�cal and ﬁnancial risk factors.
Overall, the simultaneous increase in commodity prices demand from technology intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and renewable energy renewable energy chain constraints, and increased demand from technology regions, including the United States, Qatar, Australia, and China - China, despite being the largest LNG importer, hydropower, while delaying further development of
demand from technology intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and
Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau,
Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau,
Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau,
Unlike energy markets, metals did not experience a sharp spike but rather a persistently high plateau,
In line with the World Bank Group’s Commodity Markets
infrastructure.
However, despite this apparent stabilization in commodity Global Commodity Shock & Energy-Metal Stress (2025–2026) intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and Nigeria. remained relatively resilient due to its diversi ed energy gas-based infrastructure.
infrastructure.
Overall, the evidence conﬁrms that global energy and metal markets have entered a high vola�lity d
Overall, the evidence conﬁrms that global energy and metal markets have entere
alongside elevated levels of the Oil Price Uncertainty Index, reﬂec�ng ongoing pressures from industrial restructuring, supply chain constraints, and increased ts, and increased
reﬂec�ng ongoing pressures from industrial restructuring, supply chain constrain a high vola�lity
reﬂec�ng ongoing pressures from industrial restructuring, supply chain constraints, and increased ts, and increased
reﬂec�ng ongoing pressures from industrial restructuring, supply chain constrain
Outlook, the global economy entered 2026 under severe
prices, major global uncertainty indicators pointed to World Policy Uncertainty Index, and Geopolitical Risk Index These developments are strongly reinforced by global price dynamics in energy and agriculture linked agriculture linked renewable energy infrastructure. This expansion, representing roughly 10 percent growth in mix, including coal, domestic gas, and pipeline imports. In Regional Impact
demand from technology intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and predictability.
regime characterized by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and redu
regime characterized by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and reduced predictability. ced
demand from technology intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and renewable energy renewable energy
These developments are strongly reinforced by global price dynamics in energy and
demand from technology intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and
demand from technology intensive sectors such as electric vehicles, data centers, and renewable energy renewable energy
commodity stress, with energy prices projected to rise by
deepening systemic vulnerabilities. The Oil Price Global commodity markets during 2025–2026 reﬂect a clear transi�on from cyclical normaliza�on to These developments are strongly reinforced by global price global LNG supply, shifted the market fundamentally from a 2025 it opportunistically increased spot LNG purchases
commodi�es. The World Bank highlights that energy markets have experienced one of the largest one of the largest
indicates a more unstable and interconnected global risk infrastructure. from stabiliza�on in 2025 to synchronized escala�on in 2026 underscores that underscores that
infrastructure. transi�on stabiliza�on in 2025 to synchronized escala�on in 2026
commodi�es. The World Bank highlights that energy markets have experienced
The from
The transi�on
infrastructure.
infrastructure.
supply shocks on record due to geopoli�cal disrup�ons, with crude oil supply reduc�ons reaching up to
around 24%, reaching their highest level since 2022, while up to
geopoli�cal risk has become the dominant force shaping global commodity
Uncertainty Index rose sharply from 40.8 in January 2025 to environment. Commodity pricing is increasingly in uenced geopoli�cal risk has become the dominant force shaping global commodity dynamics, reinforcing dynamics in energy and agriculture linked commodities. seller dominated structure to a buyer driven regime, where during price declines, while in 2026 it emphasized contract The 2026 LNG shock functioned as a regional stress test of
supply shocks on record due to geopoli�cal disrup�ons, with crude oil supply reduc�ons reaching dynamics, reinforcing
geopoli�cally driven structural instability. This shi� is evident across energy, metals, and related inp
These developments are strongly reinforced by global price dynamics in energy andut
These developments are strongly reinforced by global price dynamics in energy and agriculture linked agriculture linked
10 million barrels per day at peak stress levels. Brent crude prices, which had averaged around USD 69
10 million barrels per day at peak stress levels. Brent crude prices, which had averaged around USD 69
overall commodity prices are expected to increase by 16%, of environment of
inﬂa�onary pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying the broader environment
inﬂa�onary pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying the broader
These developments are strongly reinforced by global price dynamics in energy and
These developments are strongly reinforced by global price dynamics in energy and agriculture linked agriculture linked
90.2 in March, then surged to 186.7 in June, and reached not only by traditional supply and demand factors but also commodi�es. The World Bank highlights that energy markets have experienced one of the largest one of the largest The World Bank highlights that energy markets have prices were expected to soften due to excess availability. At diversi cation, storage expansion, and demand side energy security frameworks in Asia, revealing sharp
commodi�es. The World Bank highlights that energy markets have experienced
structural global economic uncertainty. aced by a broad-based shock in early
divergence in resilience. Advanced economies relied on
per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD 86 per barrel in 2026, with
per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD 86 per barrel in 2026, with temporary spikes temporary spikes
structural global economic uncertainty.
commodi�es. The World Bank highlights that energy markets have experien
commodi�es. The World Bank highlights that energy markets have experienced one of the ced
driven by energy, fertilizer, and metal markets. This re ects a largest one of the largest
208 by December, indicating persistent instability in markets, where ini�al price stabiliza�on in 2025 was abruptly repl experienced one of the largest supply shocks on record due the same time, global LNG demand growth, estimated at exibility through industrial load adjustments. hedging, storage, and supply diversi cation, while
supply shocks on record due to geopoli�cal disrup�ons, with crude oil supply reduc�ons reaching up to
supply shocks on record due to geopoli�cal disru
by geopolitical developments, strategic chokepoints, policy signiﬁcantly higher during acute disrup�on phases. p�ons, with crude oil supply reduc�ons reaching up to
signiﬁcantly higher during acute disrup�on phases.
systemic transmission of geopolitical shocks into global
supply shocks on record due to geopoli�cal disrup�ons, with crude oil supply reduc�ons reaching up to
supply shocks on record due to geopoli�cal disrup�ons, with crude oil supply reduc�ons reaching up to
market expectations despite temporary price moderation. Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty 2026, driven primarily by escala�ng geopoli�cal tensions, par�cularly in energy producing regions and to geopolitical disruptions, with crude oil supply reductions around 8.5 percent in 2026, remained concentrated in India - India faced rising import costs and responded by developing economies depended on demand compression,

10 million barrels per day at peak stress levels. Brent crude prices, which had averag

fragmentation, and nancial uncertainty. This re ects a 10 million barrels per day at peak stress levels. Brent crude prices, which had averaged around USD 69 ed around USD 69
The spillover eﬀects extend beyond energy into fer�lizers, food security, and industrial inputs. Fer�lizer
The spillover eﬀects extend beyond energy into fer�lizers, food security, and industrial inputs. Fer�lizer
pricing systems rather than isolated market movements.
10 million barrels per day at peak stress levels. Brent crude prices, which had averaged around USD 69 ed around USD 69
10 million barrels per day at peak stress levels. Brent crude prices, which had averag
Together, the simultaneous elevation of OPU, WPUI, and strategic mari�me corridors such as the Strait of Hormuz. reaching up to 10 million barrels per day at peak stress emerging Asian economies but was insu cient to fully diversifying LNG sourcing toward the United States, Qatar, fuel substitution, and emergency procurement. This
structural shift toward a more volatile and unpredictable per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD 86 per barrel in 2026, with temporary spikes temporary spikes
per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD 86 per barrel in 2026, with
prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and precious metals are reaching historic
prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and precious metals are reaching historic

per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD 86 per barrel in 2026, with temporary spikes temporary spikes
signiﬁcantly higher during acute disrup�on phases.
signiﬁcantly higher during acute disrup�on phases.
GPR throughout 2025 indicates that while commodity global economic setting. per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD 86 per barrel in 2026, with levels. Brent crude prices, which had averaged around USD absorb the supply surge, while Europe’s imports stabilized and Australia. At the same time, it accelerated renewable highlights how geopolitical risk ampli es existing structural
highs, reﬂec�ng both industrial demand and heightened demand for safe haven assets. These
The Global Energy Price Index illustrates this transition price assets. These price
highs, reﬂec�ng both industrial demand and heightened demand for safe haven
signiﬁcantly higher during acute disrup�on phases.
prices appeared to stabilize temporarily, the structural signiﬁcantly higher during acute disrup�on phases. 69 per barrel in 2025, surged to an expected average of USD and China’s recovery remained gradual and uneven. These energy expansion and maintained coal-based backup inequalities in energy security and nancial capacity across
movements are further ampliﬁed by strong transmission eﬀects across commodity classes, where oil
movements are further ampliﬁed by strong transmission eﬀects across commodity classes, where oil
clearly. After declining from 188.6 in January 2025 to 154.2
The spillover eﬀects extend beyond energy into fer�lizers, food security, and industrial inputs. Fer�lizer
The spillover eﬀects extend beyond energy into fer�lizers, food security, and industrial inputs. Fer�lizer
underpinnings of global markets were increasingly In line with the World Bank Group’s Commodity Markets Outlook, the global economy entered 2026 86 per barrel in 2026, with temporary spikes signi cantly conditions explain the relatively range bound and declining generation to reduce exposure to price volatility. the region.
Global Commodity Shock & Energy-Metal price shocks propagate into natural gas and fer�lizer markets, intensifying inﬂa�onary pressures �onary pressures
price shocks propagate into natural gas and fer�lizer markets, intensifying inﬂa
in May 2025, and further easing to 147.4 by December 2025, strial inputs. Fer�lizer
The spillover eﬀects extend beyond energy into fer�lizers, food security, and indu
The spillover eﬀects extend beyond energy into fer�lizers, food security, and industrial inputs. Fer�lizer
prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and precious metals are reaching historic
prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and precious metals are reaching historic
globally.
globally.
under severe commodity stress, with energy prices projected to rise by around 24%, reaching
highs, reﬂec�ng both industrial demand and heightened demand for safe havtoric their
destabilized by uncertainty, policy fragmentation, and Stress (2025–2026) prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and precious metals are higher during acute disruption phases. price pattern observed through most of 2025 and early
highs, reﬂec�ng both industrial demand and heightened demand for safe haven assets. These price reaching historic
prices are projected to rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and precious metals are reaching his
energy markets initially re ected post crisis stabilization, en assets. These price
geopolitical stress. highest level since 2022, while overall commodity prices are expected to increase by 16%, driven by The spillover e ects extend beyond energy into fertilizers, 2026.
The structural nature of this vola�lity is further evident in the interac�on between
The structural nature of this vola�lity is further evident in the interac�on between energy and metal energy and metal
highs, reﬂec�ng both industrial demand and heightened demand for safe haven assets. These
movements are further ampliﬁed by strong transmission eﬀects across commodity classes, where oil
moderating demand, and relatively balanced supply price assets. These price
movements are further ampliﬁed by strong transmission eﬀects across commodity classes, where oil
highs, reﬂec�ng both industrial demand and heightened demand for safe haven
Global commodity markets during 2025–2026 re ect a clear
markets. While 2025 reﬂected divergence—energy prices declining while metal prices steadily
markets. While 2025 reﬂected divergence—energy prices declining while metal prices steadily
price shocks propagate into natural gas and fer�lizer markets, intensifying inﬂa�onary pressures �onary pressures
price shocks propagate into natural gas and fer�lizer markets, intensifying inﬂa
movements are further ampliﬁed by strong transmission eﬀects across commodity
movements are further ampliﬁed by strong transmission eﬀects across commodity classes, where oil classes, where oil
conditions. However, this trend reversed sharply in 2026,
This fragility became more visible in early 2026, when the energy, fer�lizer, and metal markets. This reﬂects a systemic transmission of geopoli�cal shocks into food security, and industrial inputs. Fertilizer prices are However, this structurally bearish outlook was disrupted by
transition from cyclical normalization to geopolitically increased—2026 marks a synchronized escala�on phase, where both indices remain elevated under in elevated under
increased—2026 marks a synchronized escala�on phase, where both indices rema
globally.
globally.
price shocks propagate into natural gas and fer�lizer markets, intensifying inﬂa�onary pressures
price shocks propagate into natural gas and fer�lizer markets, intensifying
with the index surging from 153.7 in January to 242.3 in inﬂa�onary pressures
global economy entered a period of heightened volatility in driven structural instability. This shift is evident across the inﬂuence of geopoli�cal fragmenta�on and supply chain disrup�ons. This convergence highlights a gence highlights a projected to rise by 31% in 2026, while base metals and acute geopolitical tensions a ecting key maritime energy
the inﬂuence of geopoli�cal fragmenta�on and supply chain disrup�ons. This conver
global pricing systems rather than isolated market movements.
globally.
March 2026, marking one of the steepest quarterly
cri�cal structural shi�: commodity markets are no longer independently driven by supply and demand
cri�cal structural shi�: commodity markets are no longer independently driven by supply and demand
The structural nature of this vola�lity is further evident in the interac�on between energy and metal energy and metal
The structural nature of this vola�lity is further evident in the interac�on between
commodity markets driven by geopolitical shocks. Brent energy, metals, and related input markets, where initial globally. precious metals are reaching historic highs, re ecting both routes, particularly chokepoints such as the Strait of
markets. While 2025 reﬂected divergence—energy prices declining while metal prices metal prices steadily
fundamentals but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopoli�cal and ﬁnancial risk factors.
markets. While 2025 reﬂected divergence—energy prices declining while
fundamentals but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopoli�cal and ﬁnancial risk factors. steadily
crude surged from 64.6 USD in January 2026 to 99.4 USD by The structural nature of this vola�lity is further evident in the interac�on between industrial demand and heightened demand for safe haven Hormuz, which handles a signi cant share of global LNG
The structural nature of this vola�lity is further evident in the interac�on between energy and metal energy and metal
increased—2026 marks a synchronized escala�on phase, where both indices rema
increased—2026 marks a synchronized escala�on phase, where both indices remain elevated under in elevated under
markets. While 2025 reﬂected divergence—energy prices declining while metal prices steadily
Overall, the evidence conﬁrms that global energy and metal markets have entere
markets. While 2025 reﬂected divergence—energy prices declining while metal prices steadily
March, while WTI increased from 59.9 to 91.4 USD over the Table 2: Global Energy Prices Index & Metal Price Index assets. These price movements are further ampli ed by trade. These disruptions introduced shipping risk
Overall, the evidence conﬁrms that global energy and metal markets have entered a high vola�lity d a high vola�lity
the inﬂuence of geopoli�cal fragmenta�on and supply chain disrup�ons. This convergence highlights a gence highlights a
the inﬂuence of geopoli�cal fragmenta�on and supply chain disrup�ons. This conver
regime characterized by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and redu
regime characterized by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and reduced predictability. ced predictability.
increased—2026 marks a synchronized escala�on phase, where both indices rema
same period. Simultaneously, the Oil Price Uncertainty Date Energy Price Index increased—2026 marks a synchronized escala�on phase, where both indices remain elevated under in elevated under strong transmission e ects across commodity classes, premiums, cargo diversions, and short-term supply
Metal Price Index
cri�cal structural shi�: commodity markets are no longer independently driven by supply and demand
cri�cal structural shi�: commodity markets are no longer independently driven by supply and demand
The transi�on from stabiliza�on in 2025 to synchronized escala�on in 2026 underscores that underscores that
The transi�on from stabiliza�on in 2025 to synchronized escala�on in 2026
Index rose sharply from 142.2 in January 2026 to 773.5 in the inﬂuence of geopoli�cal fragmenta�on and supply chain disrup�ons. This conver where oil price shocks propagate into natural gas and bottlenecks, while LNG’s inherently low short run supply
the inﬂuence of geopoli�cal fragmenta�on and supply chain disrup�ons. This convergence highlights a gence highlights a
fundamentals but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopoli�cal and ﬁnancial risk factors.
fundamentals but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopoli�cal and ﬁnancial risk factors.
geopoli�cal risk has become the dominant force shaping global commodity dynamics, reinforcing
geopoli�cal risk has become the dominant force shaping global commodity dynamics, reinforcing
181.2
cri�cal structural shi�: commodity markets are no longer independently driven by supply and demand
Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty March, the highest level in the observed series, re ecting 1/1/2025 188.6 cri�cal structural shi�: commodity markets are no longer independently driven by supply and demand fertilizer markets, intensifying in ationary pressures elasticity ampli ed the impact of these shocks. As a result,
inﬂa�onary pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying the broader environment of environment of
inﬂa�onary pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying the broader
Overall, the evidence conﬁrms that global energy and metal markets have entered a high vola�lity d a high vola�lity
Overall, the evidence conﬁrms that global energy and metal markets have entere
fundamentals but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopoli�cal and ﬁnancial risk factors.
186.3
structural global economic uncertainty.
structural global economic uncertainty.
The World Policy Uncertainty Index (GDP-weighted extreme instability in energy market expectations. 2/1/2025 183.1 fundamentals but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopoli�cal and ﬁnancial risk factors. globally. despite underlying oversupply conditions, the Asia LNG
regime characterized by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and reduced predictability. ced predictability.
regime characterized by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and redu
187.3
Overall, the evidence conﬁrms that global energy and metal markets have entere
average) also showed sustained escalation, rising from The World Policy Uncertainty Index, although lower than its 3/1/2025 172.8 Overall, the evidence conﬁrms that global energy and metal markets have entered a high vola�lity d a high vola�lity The structural nature of this volatility is further evident in market experienced a sharp nonlinear price spike in March
The transi�on from stabiliza�on in 2025 to synchronized escala�on in 2026 underscores that underscores that
The transi�on from stabiliza�on in 2025 to synchronized escala�on in 2026
regime characterized by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and reduced predictability. ced predictability.
25,719.7 in January 2025 to 77,304.6 by September before 2025 peak, remained signi cantly elevated at 39,788.0 in 4/1/2025 regime characterized by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and redu the interaction between energy and metal markets. While 2026, rising by 93.58 percent in a single month. This
geopoli�cal risk has become the dominant force shaping global commodity dynamics, reinforcing
geopoli�cal risk has become the dominant force shaping global commodity dynamics, reinforcing
175.9
The transi�on from stabiliza�on in 2025 to synchronized escala�on in 2026
remaining elevated at 56,140.2 in December. This persistent January 2026 and increased further to 49,754.0 by March, 159.5 The transi�on from stabiliza�on in 2025 to synchronized escala�on in 2026 underscores that underscores that 2025 re ected divergence—energy prices declining while indicates that while structural oversupply was exerting
inﬂa�onary pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying the broader environment of environment of
inﬂa�onary pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying the broader
179.1
geopoli�cal risk has become the dominant force shaping global commodity dynamics, reinforcing
structural global economic uncertainty.
rise re ected increasing uncertainty in global economic indicating sustained policy instability amid rising 5/1/2025 154.2 geopoli�cal risk has become the dominant force shaping global commodity dynamics, reinforcing metal prices steadily increased—2026 marks a downward pressure on prices, the market had become
structural global economic uncertainty.
inﬂa�onary pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying the broader
180.6
governance, trade regulations, monetary policy geopolitical tensions. 6/1/2025 167.1 inﬂa�onary pressures, weakening growth prospects, and intensifying the broader environment of environment of synchronized escalation phase, where both indices remain highly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, which temporarily

structural global economic uncertainty.
coordination, and macroeconomic management. structural global economic uncertainty. overrode fundamentals and triggered extreme volatility
Similarly, the Geopolitical Risk Index rose from 167.80 in 7/1/2025 165.1 184.3 elevated under the in uence of geopolitical fragmentation through panic buying, reallocation of cargoes to higher

January 2026 to 297.27 by March, marking one of the most 8/1/2025 158.3 184.7 and supply chain disruptions. This convergence highlights a paying markets, and supply chain disruptions.
pronounced increases in the dataset. This increase re ects critical structural shift: commodity markets are no longer
intensifying geopolitical con ict, disruptions in key 9/1/2025 157.9 192.6 independently driven by supply and demand fundamentals
maritime supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, and 10/1/2025 151.1 201.3 but are increasingly shaped by interconnected geopolitical
growing concerns over prolonged regional instability, all of 11/1/2025 152.7 201.8 and nancial risk factors.
which increasingly in uenced market behavior. 12/1/2025 147.4 210.8 Overall, the evidence con rms that global energy and metal
The combined rise in oil price uncertainty, policy markets have entered a high volatility regime characterized
uncertainty, and geopolitical risk suggests that the 2026 1/1/2026 153.7 224.2 by persistent external shocks, elevated price levels, and
commodity shock extended beyond physical supply 2/1/2026 159.2 220 reduced predictability. The transition from stabilization in
constraints and was also shaped by broader systemic 3/1/2026 242.3 222.9 2025 to synchronized escalation in 2026 underscores that
uncertainty linked to geopolitical fragmentation and policy geopolitical risk has become the dominant force shaping Source: Macrotrends
Source: World Uncertainty Index Source: Macrotrends
unpredictability.

The Global Energy Price Index illustrates this transi�on clearly. A�er declining from 188.6 in January
ICMA’s Chartered Management Accountant, Mar-Apr 2026
63
2025 to 154.2 in May 2025, and further easing to 147.4 by December 2025, energy markets ini�ally
reﬂected post crisis stabiliza�on, modera�ng demand, and rela�vely balanced supply condi�ons.
However, this trend reversed sharply in 2026, with the index surging from 153.7 in January to 242.3 in
March 2026, marking one of the steepest quarterly increases in the series. This abrupt escala�on
coincided with major geopoli�cal disrup�ons that constrained global oil supply, including signiﬁcant
interrup�ons in key export routes and produc�on hubs and produc�on networks.

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