Page 16 - CMA Journal (Mar-Apr 2026)

Secondly, because of the lack of a clear and consistent vessels transiting through that region. Importantly here,
strategy from the United States in terms of why and how they Tehran is asking for these tariffs to be denominated in yuan
intend to pursue this con ict with Iran, combined with some rather than the US dollar. The impact of this is twofold. One,
highly vitriolic and bellicose language, we can see a Iran is able to gain perhaps up to $1 trillion in transit fees in
signi cant diminishment of trust in Washington as a any year. Two, by demanding that other countries in the
competent, rational and stable partner. Within such region such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and
dynamics Beijing is presenting itself as a country that wants Bahrain, among others, also pay these yuan-denominated
to continue a rules-based international order, wishes to fees means that the dominance of the US dollar is potentially
maintain stability concerning trade and energy security, and under threat. Thus, rather than talking about petrodollars we
which is able to help create a peaceful and benign may start to think about petroyuans. This reveals a deeper
international system. In particular, the US's seeming signi cance, in that all these excess petrodollars in the past
rejection of international law, as embodied by comments by have been funnelled to investments in the United States and
the current US Defence Secretary that he thinks that rules of the United States stock market. But if they are denominated
engagement are “dumb” or by the US President's threats to in Chinese yuan, such investments in the US will no longer
attack water re neries or electrical power facilities in Iran, take place on the same scale and much of this money will
both of which would be war crimes, denotes how the liberal instead be funnelled into Chinese investments, which will
international order is in crisis. increase the power of Beijing and effectively diminish that of
Washington.
From this basis, shifts in the global order are certainly
accelerating away from a US-dominated liberal international
order towards something which is much more multipolar in More broadly, and given the
nature, with the US and China, as well as India, Russia and the “
European Union all being in uential. energy shocks already

ICMA: From a great power politics perspective, how does emanating from the region
the Iran con ict reshape the global balance of power,
which look set to get far
and where does Pakistan t within this emerging
disorder? worse, fundamental questions
are being asked by all states
Chris Ogden: As noted above, the US has been unable to
mobilise traditional allies in this con ict in the Middle East. large and small about the
Combined with its seeming rejection of international law,
this failure to assemble partners through traditional means practicalities and wisdom of
of international diplomacy does appear to signify a power being dependent upon gas and
whose in uence, importance and centrality are declining. In
all these regards, the war with Iran appears to have revealed oil, not only from the Middle
these deep-seated weaknesses and the awed way in which East but elsewhere. “
the US conducts its foreign policy and diplomacy under the
current US President. What is signi cant here is that trust is a
commodity that takes a long time to be acquired, nurtured
ICMA: How is this con ict reshaping great power
and gained within international affairs, but is exceptionally
competition, particularly between the United States,
easy to lose, potentially irrevocably, especially if
China, and Russia?
longstanding partners are humiliated in the way that the
current US President does on a weekly basis. In these ways, Chris Ogden: The US's actions towards Iran present it as
the Iran con ict can be regarded more as an in ection point being an irrational, incompetent and untrustworthy
that indicates a sense of rede nition of the prevailing nature international partner. When combined with President
of international affairs. Pakistan can also gain from the crisis Trump's tariffs against several countries, which were also
in terms of augmenting its credentials as a diplomatic often incoherent, inconsistent and indiscriminate in nature,
interlocutor and regional voice of reason. the US is quickly acquiring the image of a less-than-preferred
international actor. It is for these reasons that the in uence of
Signi cant in this regard are Iran's actions in the Strait of
other countries will increase, especially if they are able to
Hormuz, in particular its charging of tariffs for ships and
present themselves as stable, cooperative and peaceful

14 ICMA’s Chartered Management Accountant, Mar-Apr 2026